TM600.88 Spring 1997
Evolution of Technologies

Technology forecasting is an essential ingredient in strategic planning. It is a means by which you can consider what is possible versus what is desired versus what is expected in the advancement of technology. Be sure to read the text readings on this topic carefully.

To supplement that material, I want to share Steele's (1989, p. 225) summary of the contents of a technology forecast:

• Bound the area to be covered.
• Identify key external forces.
• Identify driving forces and constraints.
• Identify the likely sequence of early application.
• Infer predictive events to look for.
• Evaluate readiness to cope.

One of the best ways to forecast a technology is to consider its evolution. Andy Grove, CEO of Intel Corporation, recently wrote in a Fortune magazine article, "I have a rule in my business: To see what can happen in the next ten years, look at what has happened in the last ten years."*

Considering a technology's evolution as a life cycle is instructive. The kind of advance that is made in a technology tends to change as it matures, from product innovation to process innovation. Specifically, as a technology matures:

• The nature of management changes from the proliferation of products and features to the stabilization and strength of the "dominant survivor" (Steele, 1989, p. 46).
• The vulnerability of the technology (possibly) increases.
• The supporting processes become more specialized (to support the dominant survivor) and more capital-intensive.
• The applications of the technology become a more important source of innovation.

An S-curve is often used to depict the rate of technical advance (Y-axis) over time (X-axis); i.e., the rate of technical advance is slowest in the early and late stages of the life cycle, and steeper during the growing and maturing stages.

This curvilinear relationship seems to be true for technology substitution (i.e., the penetration rate of new technology).

* Grove, A. Taking on Prostate Cancer. Fortune. May 13, 1996, pp. 55-72. (on reserve)

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